Retirement
How Long Will My Money Last Calculator
See how long your savings will last in retirement. Enter your starting balance, monthly withdrawals, and expected return — we'll project how many years your money will sustain you.
Retirement
How Long Will My Money Last Calculator
Result
One of the hardest questions in retirement planning isn't "how much do I need?" but "how long will what I have actually last?" The answer depends on three things: how much you withdraw each month, what return your portfolio earns, and how long your retirement lasts. This calculator runs the math for your specific numbers.
The math behind the result
You enter:
- Current portfolio balance. Total of investment accounts, retirement accounts, and other invested assets.
- Monthly withdrawal amount (in today's dollars).
- Expected annual return on the portfolio (typically 4-6% for a retirement-appropriate mix of stocks and bonds).
- Annual inflation rate (a common assumption is 3%).
The calculator compounds the portfolio monthly, subtracts the withdrawal (which it increases each year for inflation), and tracks when the balance runs out — or notes if the portfolio is sustainable indefinitely at this withdrawal rate.
The 4% rule revisited
The most famous retirement drawdown framework is the 4% rule from the Trinity Study: withdraw 4% of your starting portfolio in year one, increase the dollar amount for inflation each year after. A $1M portfolio supports $40,000/year of inflation-adjusted spending, very likely for at least 30 years.
3%: Very safe, even for 40-50 year retirements. $1M = $30,000/year.
4%: The classic rule. ~95% historical success rate over 30 years. $1M = $40,000/year.
5%: Aggressive. Works in most historical periods but fails in 1960s-1970s stagflation scenarios. $1M = $50,000/year.
6%+: High risk of running out of money in a long retirement. $1M = $60,000+/year.
Sequence of returns risk
The same average return can produce wildly different outcomes depending on when the returns happen. A portfolio that loses 30% in year 1 of retirement and then averages 7% afterward will run out of money much sooner than one that averages 7% from the start and then loses 30% in year 25 — even though the long-term average is identical.
This is called sequence of returns risk, and it's the single biggest threat to early-retirement plans. Mitigations:
- Cash buffer. Keep 1-3 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds. In a down market, draw from the buffer instead of selling stocks at a loss.
- Flexible spending. Be willing to cut 10-20% in bad years. Even small flexibility dramatically improves portfolio longevity.
- Lower initial withdrawal rate. Starting at 3.5% instead of 4% adds significant safety margin.
- Bond tent. Hold a higher bond allocation in early retirement (50-60% bonds), then shift back to stocks as the portfolio grows past the initial vulnerable years.
Inflation is the silent killer
A $50,000/year retirement budget today will need to be $90,000 in 20 years just to maintain purchasing power, assuming 3% inflation. Some retirees underestimate this dramatically — they look at their portfolio and current expenses and don't account for the fact that the same lifestyle will cost roughly double 25 years into retirement.
This calculator factors inflation into the withdrawals: the dollar amount you enter is your year-one withdrawal in today's dollars, and the calculator escalates it each year to maintain real purchasing power. The portfolio has to grow fast enough to keep up with both withdrawals and inflation.
Variable spending strategies
The simplest withdrawal strategy is the "fixed real" approach: withdraw a set amount each year, adjusted for inflation. But this can be too rigid — it forces you to draw the same amount in a year when your portfolio is down 30% as in a year when it's up 30%.
Variable strategies adjust withdrawals based on portfolio performance:
- Floor and ceiling: set a minimum withdrawal you'll always take (the floor) and a maximum (the ceiling). Adjust between based on portfolio value.
- Guardrails approach: increase or cut spending by 10% when the portfolio crosses certain thresholds.
- Percentage of portfolio: withdraw a set percentage (e.g., 4%) of the current portfolio each year. Income fluctuates but the portfolio is more sustainable.
Variable strategies typically allow higher average withdrawals (4.5-5%) than the fixed 4% rule, at the cost of accepting year-to-year income variability.
The bucket strategy
A popular approach divides the portfolio into three "buckets" by time horizon:
- Bucket 1 (Cash, 1-3 years of expenses): high-yield savings, short-term Treasuries. Funds current spending.
- Bucket 2 (Bonds, 3-10 years of expenses): intermediate-term bonds. Refills Bucket 1 as it depletes.
- Bucket 3 (Stocks, 10+ year horizon): equity index funds. Long-term growth, refills Bucket 2 over time.
The point isn't really about returns — it's psychological. Knowing your near-term spending is in safe assets makes it easier to leave the stock portion alone during downturns instead of panic-selling at the bottom.
What this calculator can't account for
- Taxes on withdrawals. From a traditional 401(k) or IRA, withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. Roth withdrawals are tax-free. A taxable brokerage account is taxed at capital gains rates. Adjust your gross withdrawal upward to net the spending number you want.
- Social Security, which provides inflation-adjusted income that reduces how much you need to withdraw from your portfolio. Plug it in as an offset to your monthly withdrawal.
- Healthcare cost increases, which typically run 5-7% per year — well above general inflation.
- Late-retirement spending changes. Many retirees spend more in their first 10 years (travel, family events) and less in their final years.
- Long-term care needs, which can drain a portfolio quickly if uninsured.
Questions readers ask
How long will $500,000 last in retirement?
At a 4% withdrawal rate ($20,000/year), $500,000 should last roughly 30 years assuming a balanced portfolio earning 5-7% returns. At $30,000/year (6% withdrawal), it's likely to run out in 20-25 years. Add Social Security as supplemental income, and $500,000 + Social Security can sustain a modest retirement lifestyle indefinitely for many people.
Is the 4% rule safe in 2026?
The 4% rule has historically held up across most 30-year retirement periods, including the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation. Some researchers argue current high stock valuations and low bond yields suggest using a more conservative 3-3.5% rate. For very long retirements (40+ years), most planners recommend the lower rate. For traditional 30-year retirements, 4% remains a reasonable starting point.
What happens if the market crashes early in my retirement?
This is sequence of returns risk — the biggest danger to retirement plans. A 30-40% portfolio drop in your first few years, combined with ongoing withdrawals, can permanently shrink the portfolio's recovery potential. Mitigations include holding 1-3 years of expenses in cash, reducing spending temporarily in down years, and starting with a slightly lower withdrawal rate to leave buffer.
How do I factor inflation into retirement withdrawals?
Increase your withdrawal amount each year to match inflation (historically about 3%). A $40,000 year-one withdrawal becomes ~$41,200 in year two, ~$42,400 in year three, and so on. This calculator does this automatically when you input an inflation rate. The 4% rule is built around this assumption — the 4% is the year-one withdrawal that gets inflation-adjusted forever.
What return rate should I assume in retirement?
A balanced retirement portfolio (40-60% stocks, 40-60% bonds) historically averages 4-6% real returns (after inflation). For nominal returns including inflation, 6-8% is common. Conservative portfolios (mostly bonds) might return 3-4% real. Match the assumption to your actual portfolio allocation, and run scenarios at slightly lower returns to stress-test.
Should I delay Social Security to make my money last longer?
Often yes. Delaying Social Security from age 62 to 70 increases your monthly benefit by roughly 76%, and that increase is permanent and inflation-adjusted. If you can fund early retirement years from your portfolio, delaying Social Security functions as the best annuity available — and reduces the strain on your portfolio later when you start collecting the larger benefit.
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Important note
WalletCalcs provides educational estimates only. Results are not financial, tax, lending, legal, or investment advice. Always confirm important decisions with the appropriate professional or provider.